Nvidia Earnings Today: AI Market on Edge as Investors Brace for High-Stakes Q3 Results
The global stock market is holding its breath today as Nvidia prepares to announce its highly anticipated Q3 earnings, a report that could determine the next major move of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. With the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all showing early signs of recovery after a turbulent week, Nvidia’s performance will serve as the model for the entire tech sector—and possibly the wider market.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. Nvidia briefly crossed a $5 trillion market valuation last month, becoming the world’s most valuable chipmaker and the most important supplier of the hardware powering AI. But as investors become increasingly anxious about AI overbuilding, over-valuation, and slowing cloud spending, the company faces more scrutiny than ever.
This earnings release is also Nvidia’s first since several major investors—including Peter Thiel and SoftBank—sold their entire stakes, further fueling speculation that the AI trade may be cooling off.
Today’s results could move Nvidia’s market cap by as much as $320 billion in a single session, according to ORATS. For Wall Street, this is not just another earnings call—this is a stress test for AI mania itself.
Stock Market Edges Higher Ahead of Nvidia
U.S. futures were mixed early Wednesday:
- S&P 500 futures: +0.3%
- Nasdaq 100 futures: +0.4%
- Dow futures: +0.1%
These small gains show that investors are cautiously optimistic, hoping Nvidia will deliver a strong beat. With nearly every tech stock—from Microsoft to Alphabet—moving in sync with the AI giant, all eyes are locked on the numbers Nvidia delivers tonight.
Even after a small rebound this morning, Nvidia shares remain 12% below their recent all-time high, and dropped nearly 3% on Tuesday as traders positioned themselves ahead of earnings.
Why Nvidia’s Q3 Earnings Are So Important
Unlike most companies, Nvidia’s results don’t just affect its own stock—they influence:
- AI chip rivals (AMD, Intel)
- AI adopters (Meta, Microsoft, Google, Amazon)
- Data center companies
- Cloud computing stocks
- Even crypto-related companies
This is because Nvidia controls the vast majority of the AI processing chip market.
If Nvidia beats expectations
Investors may fear AI overbuilding, meaning companies are spending too aggressively on AI hardware that will take longer to monetize.
If Nvidia misses expectations
Investors may fear the AI bubble is slowing sooner than expected.
This is what Gene Munster called a “Catch-22” scenario:
“Stronger guidance can amplify overspending worries, while a modest raise can be seen as growth normalizing too fast.”
No matter the numbers, the outcome will send shockwaves across the market.
The AI Gold Rush Is Facing Growing Skepticism
For two years, the AI boom has been unstoppable, with Nvidia at the center of it all. But recently, Wall Street has begun warning about three major risks:
1. AI Overbuilding (The Biggest Concern)
Companies like Meta, Amazon, Oracle, and Google have spent billions on Nvidia chips—often more than they spend on entire product divisions.
Michael Burry, famous for predicting the 2008 crash, warned that companies may be hiding real losses by masking the depreciation of expensive AI hardware.
If true, many AI-heavy stocks may be overvalued.
2. Growing Competition From AMD and Custom Chips
AMD’s CEO Lisa Su recently announced that the data center market could reach $1 trillion by 2030, but she also showcased new AI chips that compete directly with Nvidia’s lineup.
Meanwhile, big tech companies like:
- Google (TPU)
- Amazon (Trainium / Inferentia)
- Meta (MTIA)
- Microsoft (Maia & Cobalt chips)
…are building their own AI processors—a long-term threat to Nvidia’s dominance.
3. Big Investors Are Selling Nvidia Stock
Two major exits happened recently:
- Peter Thiel’s fund sold 100% of its Nvidia stake (~$100 million)
- SoftBank sold its entire $5.8 billion Nvidia position
SoftBank wants to invest in its own AI projects, but the timing raised eyebrows:
Why sell before earnings?
What Analysts Expect From Nvidia’s Q3 Report
Analysts are looking for:
- Strong data center revenue
- High demand from hyperscalers (Amazon, Google, Microsoft)
- Continued growth in AI training chips
- Updates on supply, demand, and production capacity
- Guidance on AI expansion into automotive and robotics
But the biggest question is:
Is demand still expanding—or is the industry reaching saturation?
How Much of Nvidia’s Revenue Comes From Big Tech?
Nvidia says that 50% of all data center revenue comes from just three customers:
- Amazon
- Microsoft
That level of dependency makes Wall Street nervous—especially as those same companies develop their own AI chips.
If even one hyperscaler reduces orders, Nvidia’s future revenue could decline rapidly.
Could Nvidia Spark Another AI Rally?
If Nvidia delivers:
- A revenue beat
- Strong guidance
- Positive commentary on AI demand
…the AI trade could ignite again overnight.
This would lift:
- Microsoft
- Meta
- AMD
- Broadcom
- Super Micro Computer
- AI software companies
- Chipmaking equipment suppliers
A strong earnings report could also pull the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 higher for the rest of the week.
What Happens If Nvidia Disappoints?
If Nvidia reports:
- Slower data center growth
- Lower guidance
- Margin contraction
- Demand softening
…it could trigger:
A broader AI sell-off
Pressure on the Nasdaq
A deeper correction in high-growth tech
Panic selling among short-term investors
A $200–$320 billion single-day drop is possible.
Why Bitcoin, Gold, and Oil Are Reacting
Ahead of Nvidia :
- Bitcoin is falling on risk-off sentiment
- Gold is rising as investors seek safety
- Oil is falling due to weakening demand
- Treasury yields have paused as markets wait for clarity
This shows Nvidia’s earnings are powerful enough to impact multiple asset classes—not just stocks.
Final Outlook: Nvidia Holds the Future of the AI Rally
Nvidia’s Q3 report is the most significant earnings event of 2025. It will not only determine the direction of Nvidia stock but also:
- The health of the AI boom
- The future of tech valuations
- The strength of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
- Investor confidence in the market
- Whether the AI bubble continues or weakens
Tonight’s results will decide whether the AI trade is entering a new golden era—or facing its first true slowdown.